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- calendar_today October 19, 2026
Economic Forum Projects Significant Increase in Nevada Budget
Nevada is on track to see at least a $1 billion increase in its next two-year budget, according to recent revenue forecasts. These optimistic projections come despite ongoing concerns over economic slowdown, including tariff impacts and a decline in Las Vegas tourism. The state’s Economic Forum—a five-member panel of private-sector economists—shared these forecasts in a meeting on Wednesday, providing a welcomed outlook for lawmakers and state officials crafting the next fiscal plan.
State Revenues Outpace Expectations
The Economic Forum’s cautious expectations have been surpassed by actual state revenues, which have significantly exceeded earlier projections. While some of the increased revenue stems from inflation and higher insurance premiums—meaning more money is being drawn from Nevadans' pocketbooks—overall growth offers state leaders more resources as they shape the next budget.
Although final decisions on the budget size are set for next month, the forum has already approved minor revenue projections. Notably, these projections show a decrease from current cycles for areas like unclaimed property and cigarette taxes, attributed to revenue declines in these segments.
Upcoming Budget: Source and Scale of Growth
The next two-year budget, which will be finalized based on the forum’s November projections, is expected to provide lawmakers and the governor with far more flexibility than previous years. Depending on which forecast is adopted, the state could have between $900 million and $1.64 billion more for the 2026-2027 cycle. By comparison, the most recent budget approved two years ago marked a $1 billion increase over its predecessor.
Governor Joe Lombardo’s initial 2025 budget proposal faced a $335 million deficit, and ongoing economic concerns have contributed to tense circumstances during the most recent legislative session. However, with general fund revenues growing by about 7.5% in fiscal year 2026 and expected further growth ahead, Nevada is positioned to move past its recent budget crunch.
Key Drivers: Sales Tax Revenue and Industry Trends
Sales and use taxes, accounting for about 30% of the state’s general fund revenues, remain a significant source of the projected budget boost. For the fiscal year ending in June, sales tax revenue exceeded forecast by approximately $113 million—a figure explained in part by tax collection anomalies. Major contributors to this growth included the manufacturing and data center sectors. However, economists cautioned that while diversification supports growth, volatility in these smaller sectors remains a concern.
Kumael Bilgrami, an economist with Moody’s Analytics, identified that about 90% of the recent sales tax growth is attributable to rising goods costs, an effect of inflation. He noted, “We would expect that sales tax collections will continue growing, but weak tourism and cost pressures on consumers will keep a lid on those gains.”
Tourism Decline and Inflation Impact Economic Outlook
Nevada continues to face challenges related to declines in visitation, particularly in Las Vegas. Nevertheless, the state has seen job growth remain stable, and experts believe some negative trends—such as higher gas prices and reduced tourism—may subside in the coming cycle. Las Vegas’s wealthier visitor base has also provided a limited buffer for the hospitality sector.
Looking ahead, upcoming major sporting events in Las Vegas, including the college football championship, the men's college basketball Final Four, and the Super Bowl through early 2029, are expected to boost revenues further.
Legislative Outlook and Policy Considerations
The budget that the Economic Forum sets in November will form the foundation for the governor’s recommended budget, due in January. While Attorney General Aaron Ford (D) has proposed several policies requiring additional funding, Governor Lombardo (R), who is seeking a second term, has shared fewer legislative specifics. Both candidates have pledged to avoid tax increases.
As the state prepares for the next legislative session, the combination of increased state revenues, projected budget growth, and persistent economic pressures will drive key policy decisions and resource allocations across Nevada.
Source: thenevadaindependent.com.
